Swine flu villainous virus

Sine swine flu(H1N1) outbreak through Mexico. All restaurants and shops shutdown and change Mexico become to a ghost town. No one no where this virus came from , all people around the world are worrying about the situation. 20 people dead and more than 300 people infected. Checking passengers from every flight that come from Mexico, Is it actually work? This swine flu spread quickly not from eating pig but from contagion. Who know who infected or you think the governments know all? Not only that swine flu effect only healthy but also the economy and tourism. How big it impact to us?

Mexico says swine flu declining
By: AFP
Published: 3/05/2009 at 02:56 PM, Bangkokpost
Mexico said on Sunday its swine flu epidemic was declining as a diplomatic storm brewed China’s decision to quarantine dozens of Mexicans who have shown no signs of infection.
Swine flu epidemic was declining but it will never end. As we know this flu spread through contagion not from eating pig. Every day when we go out of home ,Do you know how many people that you accidentally met per day.? Do you think really that we can eliminate it all?

Mexico City government health officials disinfect a subway station in Mexico City. Mexico said Sunday its H1N1 flu epidemic is "in its phase of decline" but urged continued caution as it raised its number of infected cases by 33.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization warned that it could soon raise its global pandemic alert level to a maximum of six and stressed that any fresh outbreaks of the virus in pigs must be contained and monitored. Only monitor or let the problem occur and then resolve it. It like “ It is too late to shut the stable-door when the steed is stolen”
The WHO pointed to the risk of further spread in humans after a herd of pigs in Canada was infected with (A)H1N1 strain, in what is believed to be the first instance of human to swine
A total of 18 countries have reported 898 cases of human swine flu A(H1N1) infections and 20 deaths, the WHO said, adding Italy to its list of affected countries, but not Colombia, which only reported its first case earlier Sunday. Mexico's Cordova said anti-viral medicine was effective against the flu, and the public's use of face-masks and hand-washing had limited the spread of the virus. Hospital admissions with flu-like symptoms were dropping. Although, Mexico has noticed that every thing return to normal and infected patients already control but the news agency still report people who suspect the symptom like swine flu in every day.
The "epidemic is in its phase of decline," he said, adding that it had peaked between April 23 and 28.But he warned the assessment was preliminary and that it was important "not to lower one's guard." If the Mexico would prefer to closure the information about death people from swine flu in order to prevent the economic meltdown. How the governments can resolve it?
Locals were increasingly chafing at restrictions that included the shutdown of schools, tourist sites and non-essential businesses, and, in the capital, the closure of bars, restaurants, clubs and cinemas. Raul Sanchez, a 49-year-old taxi driver in Mexico City, said business has dropped by half since April 24. “People don’t even want to leave their houses,” he said. “It was bad enough with the economic situation, and now it’s even worse.” We see the empty streets and a few people who go out a cover with mask. Museums, theaters and other venues in the Mexico City area, where large crowds gather, have shut down voluntarily and concerts and other events have been canceled to help contain the disease. Two professional soccer games will be played today in different Mexico City stadiums without any fans.

"We believe this is something that is necessary to understand better if animals are infected and, if they are, to both protect humans and further spread among the pig population," said food safety scientist, Peter Ben Embarek. But he underlined that the risks came from contact with bodily fluids of animals, not processed or cooked meat, or matured raw ham.
The A(H1N1) flu virus was confirmed in more than half of the 50 US states, and officials said the World Health Organization was likely to soon raise its global pandemic alert to the maximum level of six. There were 226 US cases confirmed in 30 states.
"When you talk about level six, which they very well could go to this week, all that means is it's widespread throughout the world," US Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said on CBS television. I was wondering why WHO declare the maximum level of six but Mexico and other countries return to normal. Only two weeks that we found swine flu, but the numbers raising up quickly. Why the government will wait until WHO declare the maximum level two.

The information from WHO declared maximum level of Swine flu
The current WHO phase of pandemic alert is 5-6.

-- PHASES 1-3:
Predominantly animal infections: few human infections
* PHASE 1:
No animal influenza virus circulating among animals is reported to cause infection in animals.
* PHASE 2:
Animal influenza virus is known to have caused infection in humans and is therefore a potential pandemic threat
* PHASE 3:
Animal or human-animal influenza virus causes sporadic cases or clusters of cases in people, but no human-to-human transmission, except in specific circumstances
-- PHASE 4
Sustained human-to-human transmissions
* PHASE 4:
Human to human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza virus able to sustain community-level outbreaks
"The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic."
-- PHASES 5-6/PANDEMIC
Widespread human infection
* PHASE 5: The same virus causes sustained community-level outbreaks in two or more countries in one region
"While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalise the organisation, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short."
* PHASE 6:
The virus causes sustained community-level outbreaks in more than one region
"Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way."

In Mexico, authorities confirmed that relatives of a Bangladeshi man who was one of Mexico's 19 swine flu fatalities were all free from infection.China meanwhile cancelled a chartered flight to pick up around 120 stranded Chinese citizens in Mexico, state media reported in Beijing.
The plane was to pick up Chinese citizens who had been due to head back to Shanghai on Sunday on an AeroMexico flight, but had been left stranded after China suspended flights from the flu-hit country, Xinhua said. China took the measure after a 25-year-old Mexican man tested positive for A(H1N1) flu in Hong Kong on Thursday after arriving there from Shanghai, where he had transferred from a flight from Mexico.
Mexican diplomats complained bitterly to China on Sunday saying about 70 of their countrymen had been placed under quarantine despite showing no signs of swine flu.

How minimal virus effect worldwide?
Swine flu scare prompts pork trade bans
27 Apr 2009 23:27:50 GMT
Source: Reuters
* Russia, China ban pork imports from Mexico, U.S.
China has canceled pork and hog import from Mexico and some parts of United State which effect directly through Mexico and United State exportation. China and Russia are influence countries and it no doubt that other six countries also ban pork.
* Six countries also slap on bans from some parts of U.S.
* WHO says no danger of swine flu from contact with pork
Even WHO has declared that it no danger of swine flu from contact with pork, but for preventing fearful and the security of their people. They need to do.
* Russia ban also affects U.S. beef, poultry
* Producers worried about hit to consumer demand (Adds comments from Mexico trade group, U.S. pork group, information about impact on U.S. beef and poultry)
By Jonathan Lynn
GENEVA, April 27 (Reuters) - Outbreaks of swine flu have prompted several countries to ban the import of pork, raising the prospect the disease will add a further protectionist blow to sagging world trade.
International trade rules allow countries to restrict or ban imports for health and safety reasons -- but this has to be based on scientific evidence. The World Health Organization says swine flu does not spread by eating infected pork. They ban because of preventing the outbreak of swine flu from entering. No case of Swine flu that have been reported in China but because China was an epicenter of SAR and they have learnt the lesson once time so this time they will protect well and China is a big country and the largest of population so if swine flu spread through China. It hard to control.
"It's not supposed to be an unjustifiable barrier to trade," Stuart Harbinson, senior trade policy advisor at law firm Winston & Strawn and former chairman of agriculture negotiations at the World Trade Organization, told Reuters.
Health authorities put customs officers after the outbreak killed as many as 149 people in Mexico and made others sick in the United States, Canada and Europe. [ID:nN27484099]
The flu has components of classic avian, human and swine flu viruses but has not actually been seen in pigs, leading the world animal health body OIE to say the disease should not be called swine flu [ID:nLR478786]
Six countries -- China, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates -- have banned meat and pork products from some parts of the United States in the wake of the swine flu scare, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said. [ID:nWAT011359]
"Restrictions on U.S. pork or pork products or any meat products from the United States resulting from the recent outbreak do not appear to be based on scientific evidence and may result in serious trade disruptions without cause," the USTR's office said in a statement.
Meanwhile, USTR said the United States was not considering any bans or trade restrictions on meat from Mexico.
Russia banned imports of all meat -- including beef and poultry -- not treated thermally from Mexico, Texas, California and Kansas, and raw pork imports from eight other U.S. states, Central America and the Caribbean. [ID:nLQ600185] China, Russia and other six countries have banned pork directly effect to pig farmers in Mexican. The demand of pig and pork will drop automatically. Nothing to do for selling pig and pork only wait for the government resolve the situation or wait for hope. A division of Mexico's largest trades union, the CTM, reports that the sale of pork products and meats have dropped 80% nationally.
China, the world's largest pork consumer, also banned import of live pigs and pork products from Mexico, Texas, California and Kansas. [ID:nPEK2499]
Serbia also banned pork from all of North America, said Joe Schuele, a spokesman for the U.S. Meat Export Federation. I thought that China didn’t want to ban pork and pig from Us because of Us also a big influence country ,but because of imports from US states of Texas, Kansas and California can affected by the movement of products.
Some of the markets are not large importers of U.S. pork, but the trend is concerning, Schuele said.
"There may be a certain follow-the-leader mentality," he said. "It tells us that sound science is not prevailing."
For Russia, a major market for U.S. meat, exporters of pork and chicken exporters can still ship from unaffected states. But officials were worried about the impact on beef exports from the key beef states of Kansas and Texas, Schuele said.
Exporters have also seen increased inspections of shipments, which could slow trade, Schuele said.
Mexico, a net pork importer, will not be hurt by bans announced to date since it sends the bulk of its export to Japan and South Korea, said Enrique Dominguez, head of the country's pork producers' association. [ID:nN27335]
Pork producers in both countries said they were worried consumer demand for pork could slide because of misplaced fears about safety of the meat.
"It's not just the restrictions, it's not just government policies. It's consumers, in the U.S. and worldwide," said Nick Giordano, a vice president of the National Pork Producers Council.




Swine flu spreads economic shivers
By: AFP
Published: 27/04/2009 at 07:56 PM ,Bangkokpost
The global outbreak of swine flu sent shivers through financial markets on Monday just as some signs had appeared that the global economic crisis might be easing. Mexico stock market and currency been attacked over the past few days but also financial markets in several countries. Economists warned Tuesday that the swine flu epidemic could hurt the already weak Japanese economy by discouraging travel and trade, and affecting stock and currency markets. ‘‘If the effects were to last for a quarter, it would push down annual gross domestic product by 0.03 percentage point,’’ said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital Japan Ltd. ‘‘If they were to stretch out for a full year, the downward push would be 0.12 point.’’
Mexicans pedestrian wear surgical masks in Tijuana. The global outbreak of swine flu sent shivers through financial markets just as some signs had appeared that the global economic crisis might be easing. Look at the impact on economic. It depends on how severity and how long. For an example, the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) spread through Asia in the spring of 2003. SARS was caused approximately 800 people in 7 countries died, but it was not disastrous like 1918 influenza epidemic which killed 50 million people around the world. Definitely, that the economy was in crisis. If Swine flu epidemic can control rapidly, the economic around the world will not meltdown, but of course Mexico is a epicenter so it no doubt that the economy will stop temporary or may be long time depend on how they can control the situation.
Travel and tourism took the brunt of uncertainty about how the threat of a pandemic might crimp economic activity, but the pharmaceutical sector rose as attention turned to defensive medical treatments and equipment. Tourism is the fist thing that impact Mexico. Mexico ranks in the top ten visited tourist destination, with more than 22.6 million international visitors last year. With the swine flu outbreak, national museums have been closed, vacant hotel rooms , restaurants are empty, soccer stadiums vacant, tourist attractions are blocked by soldiers and streets teem with anxious residents donning surgical masks. the Mexican tourism sector is going to be one of the most affected sectors in the country, and this is going to add to the pressures on the economy," said Eugenio J. Aleman, a senior economist for Wells Fargo & Co. "My first reaction is that this is not going to be terribly bad for the Mexican economy because things are already bad." No one wants to visit Mexico because they scare and worry to infect it. Every flight was canceled. The biggest visitor Germany and Japan canceled all trips to Mexico. When people stop to visit Mexico thus it will affect Mexico economic automatically because Mexican tourism sector is the most effected sector in the country.
Shares in Swiss drug giant Roche surged and then settled with a gain of 3.51 percent on prospects of a surge in demand for its treatment Tamiflu, a focus of interest during previous alerts over bird flu.
An analyst at Vontobel in Switzerland, Andrew Weiss, said: "When fear about bird flu really took hold in the fourth quarter of 2005, the price of shares (in Roche) rose strongly."
In 2006 and 2007 Roche had made sales of Tamiflu worth a total of 4.0 billion Swiss francs (2.65 billion euros, 3.49 billion dollars), he recalled.
Rapidly spreading concern about possible international contagion from a fatal outbreak of the human version of flu originating in pigs also pushed up the yen.
In Tokyo, the yen firmed to 96.75 against the dollar from 97.13 in New York late on Friday. Analysts said that the dollar was weakened in part by growing concern over the impact of the new strain of swine flu. Swine flu has had its impact on Forex markets, USD and JPY have been favored by risk aversion, while GBP and EUR have been driven to recent lows. According to the UBS Bank, swine flu has been the main reason for recent Euro and Pound declines: While all currencies were shaken by the swine flu, risk unwinding continued to support the JPY and the USD and put pressure on the EUR. UBS Bank advices caution on Euro positions while swine flu concerns remain present
"The outbreak of swine flu in Mexico is a concerning development for the global economy," said Societe Generale analyst Patrick Bennett. "Initial investor reaction has not surprisingly been towards risk aversion."
Pig flu also drove down oil prices with the threat of a drop in air travel, analysts said. Oil prices dipped to around $48 a barrel Monday as new reports of swine flu threatened to slow summer travel and sent jitters through global markets. Benchmark crude for June delivery fell $2.01 to $49.54 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dipped to $48.01 at one point.
In London, Manoj Ladwa, a senior trader at financial spread-betting firm ETX Capital in London, said: "Swine flu is ripping through the markets creating uncertainty in its wake."
He added: "US markets are sure to be heavily affected by this crisis when they open later today."
With the World Health Organization warning that the outbreak could become a pandemic, the United States declaring a public health emergency and the European Commission calling an urgent meeting of health ministers, stock markets recoiled in alarm.
Amid uncertainty over the possible implications of anxiety over flu on economic activity, notably in such sectors as tourism and retailing, investors and analysts took the line of caution.
In London the FTSE index of leading shares was showing a mid-morning fall of 1.20 percent, Frankfurt stocks fell by 1.05 percent and the Paris CAC 40 index fell 1.83 percent.
Stocks in Tokyo edged up 0.21 percent but traders said they were held back by concern about the effects of the flu outbreaks. In Hong Kong they fell by 2.74 percent, and in South Korea by 1.05 percent.
"News over the weekend of a deadly flu outbreak is rocking financial markets," said Matt Buckland, dealer at financial spread-betting firm CMC Markets.
"But clearly this (flu) news has the potential to become a rather serious development."

My reaction

1. Although, Mexico declared to end swine flu, but why the maximum of swine flu level still 6. It ’s to early to return the Mexico to normal situation while the numbers of infected people are increasing every day

2. Mexico worried swine flu will turn their economic meltdown but how about other countries? They should estimate the situation before returning to normal situation.

3. Only two weeks that the swine flu entered to Mexico and spread rapidly. There’re many suspect people around the world such as Japan, United State and also Thailand.

4. It effects economic and tourism in many country especially Mexico and United State. Oil price dripped to around 48$ a barrel and threaten to slow summer travel because stay home is safety than go outside.

5. China, Russia and other countries banned pork from Mexico and United State and Some country not only banned pork ,but also poultry and beef

6. The CTM, Mexico’s largest union, report that the sale of pork products and meats have dropped 80% nationally.

7. It does not depend on policy or the decision of the government but it depends on consumer of each country.


Conclusion: Swine flu is now declining but actually it never ends even though the government, WHO, CDC can control the situation but they can’t guarantee that it won’t come again and now we found virus from poultry, pig and avian. Maybe in the future we will be facing virus from fish or ox etc,

It didn’t mean that the governments, WHO, CDC can’t control the situation but they can’t eliminate all type of virus because of virus can mutate.

The best thing that we can do now is try to limit spreading of virus as much as we can.